By 2016, perhaps 80 percent of all mobile device data consumption might happen over some offloaded network mechanism, according to Wik Consult.
In 2013, offloaded mobile data might represent nearly 66 percent of all data consumed by a mobile device.
What those sorts of statistics indicate is that service providers whose business models are based on use of licensed spectrum now also are relying on third party facilities, and unlicensed spectrum as a rather integral part of their own branded services.
Some might say that further indicates the role of shared or unlicensed spectrum could be increased without necessarily harming the interests of licensed service providers, though the way shared or unlicensed spectrum is used could result in new forms of access competition.
"Multiple sources indicate that as much as 80 percent to 90 percent of Android smart phone and tablet mobile traffic is already being off-loaded to private Wi-Fi, within the end-user’s home," the authors of a study on mobile traffic offload say. "Particularly noteworthy is a new study by Informa and Mobidia that finds that at least two-thirds of mobile data for Android phones is already being off-loaded to “self-provisioned” Wi-Fi, which equates roughly to private Wi-Fi."
The report suggests that service providers gain when users offload traffic because they do not have to invest so much in network facilities. The authors estimate such savings in 2012 for the EU-27 nations to be as high as 35 billion euro, and the projected savings in 2016 as high as 200 billion euro.
“Based on our current assessment, drawing on all of these sources and others, we now believe that a majority of traffic that would otherwise be present on the macro cellular traffic is already being off-loaded, primarily to Wi-Fi in the home,” says Wik Consult.
The report does not recommend much new effort to free up additional unlicensed spectrum, beyond coordinating Wi-Fi spectrum across national borders. The report is more unambiguous about the need for additional licensed spectrum, calling for "more spectrum to be made available, either on an exclusive or a shared basis."
The report also suggests that mobile networks will have a role to play in at least two, or possibly all of the Digital Agenda for Europe goals.Those include, by 2013, supplying basic broadband to all Europeans; by 2020, supply speeds of 30 Mbps and by 2020, supplying half or more European households with services faster than 100 Mbps.
It is currently unclear what the relative impact of licensed and licence-exempt small cell technologies will be over the longer term, since the former is in its infancy; however, there appears to be a broad consensus in the industry currently that the two will largely complement rather than compete with each other.
Feedback from wireless network operators indicates that licensed and license-exempt spectrum are seen more as complements to one another rather than substitutes.
As always, licensed spectrum is preferred by tier one service providers because they can better control quality of service.
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